Whiskey Chaser

14 Aug

Bad Beats to Bad Plays Ratio

it happens.  it happens to me a lot.  so much so that i’m surprized i haven’t learned to knock it off yet.  but, i’m coming closer.

i take a bad beat, or worse yet, an acceptable beat.  i’ve taken several in the past two days.  AI on the flop with AA v KQ where he lands the K.  river comes another K.   goodbye stack #1. 

i get it in pre against a shortStacker my KK v AJ - Ace on the flop.  standard, no? goodbye 1/2 stack.

then a hand like this, where i probably don’t play it optimally.  if anyone clicks the link, the flop button bet thinking was “if i bet here, i might take it down.  if i get a call, i have some strong draws.” 

the c/r was giving me less odds than i needed to call, but there’s a turn and a river to go.  i pick up outs on the turn, and even against a set i still have flush outs and a gutshot, plus possible overcad outs.  if an overcard hits me, the plan is to check behind on the river, tbh.

whatever, i never get there. could it be played better?  probably.  but do you see the creep setting in?  i feel like i went from “i’m ahead” situations that landed heads instead of tails to situations where i’m not really ahead.  i’m actually a little behind, and not letting go. 

toss in a hand like this one.  i mean, it’s not the worst thing that could happen.  but, it’s not so good either. and i can feel the grease under my feet and that slippery slope starts to take me.

it’ll generally end in what i don’t recognize in time as being a full blown tilt-fest resulting in brilliant plays like this.

so, all in all, 1,000 hands and -4.5BI, and it’s a combination of variance, and clouded judgement.  and it’s a tiny swing, i know that.  i just need to take my pattern of

  • 1 bad beat
  • 2 losses in 7:3 or 2:1 pots
  • 1 stupid stack-off

and change it.  it’s just that last part, it’s unhealthy.

now this iteration hasn’t hurt my psyche near as much as others have, and if tomorrow i run KK into AA, or A2o that hits on the river, i’ll be ok with that.  but somewhere before i hit item #3 i have to either gain another measure of self control, or quit. 

i’d prefer developing the ability to control my mind in the face of the obviously inevitable swings of win some/lose some to  quitting, but in the short term, either will do.  just as long as it keeps me from putting the checkmark in the ”stupid stack off” box.

4 Responses to “Bad Beats to Bad Plays Ratio”

  1. 1
    Rasputin Says:

    Wow.

    And I mean wow.

    Those hands look really really familiar.

    I mean, it’s totally standard, totally standard, the K9 hand is only slightly sub optimal, the QJ hand is 80% cooler and then bam.

    I know exactly where you’re coming from and I’ve been there many times and I don’t really have any answers other than to keep concentrating on making the right decisions. I put up an epic fail there quite often but you gotta keep plugging away.

  2. 2
    willie Says:

    Sorry to hear your running bad heres my thoughts on the hands.

    1 K9d)
    I understand the call on the flop , on the turn tho I think this is a chance to push. Ok we might lose but i think our K could be live, J dimanonds Just lots of possibilities. K9 suited raising and hit the FD its what we want right? Dont let him take control of it.

    2 trip Qs)
    Pretty standard would cbet tho they expect a bet after raising give it to em im allin here if he raises and hes a woos for not 3 betting u.

    3 JJ)
    Close i think you can get away on the turn pretty strong bets by him.

    You sound like your getting pissed off I think 1000 hand sessions are to long especially going through these hands try keep em to hour sessions - break - new tables new start. If you wanna set up a session hit me up ill be happy to give imput.

    Good luck

  3. 3
    btimm Says:

    Hand 1: I like the flop call and the turn call, as I think you will get paid off if you hit, since villain seems so strong. Pushing the turn is not good as your equity, even if your king is live, is still just 25% roughly and I don’t expect a fold.

    Hand 2: Why are you checking the flop? Bet the flop please. As for the rest of the hand, pretty standard and a cooler.

    Hand 3: Fold the turn.

    I like how you are approaching the game though - you realize you make mistakes and need to fix them. That is how we will all get better.

  4. 4
    mongoose Says:

    hey willie,
    no fears. i’m not at all pissed. in fact, i might be being more objective than i’ve ever been.

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